All resolved pollsResolved · 6 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
CroatiaCrowd had 10%1
SpainWon · Crowd had 81%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Spain won 1–2.

Croatia vs Spain 589 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
49%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario44%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters589World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Spain ✓81%
Croatia10%
Tie9%
OutcomeSpain
Voters589
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓67%
Under 2.5 goals33%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters589
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters589
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SpainConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 81%+13pp
Result: Spain · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.22
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 69%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.05
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.22
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.15
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 44% of voters · came true

Spain control the match, goals flow at both ends, and the game opens up into a multi-goal contest with both sides finding the net.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Spain dominate and goals come, but Croatia are shut out, with all the scoring coming from one side of the pitch.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Spain grind out a tight, controlled win, the game stays low-scoring, and Croatia fail to register on the scoresheet.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 589 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
144%260 voters
SpainCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%78 voters
SpainCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
312%71 voters
SpainCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
412%69 voters
SpainCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
54%26 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
64%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
73%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
82%12 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
92%10 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
102%10 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (589 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3260 · 44%
2 / 3191 · 32%
1 / 3121 · 21%
0 / 317 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=589). Average 2.18 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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