The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Jordan1
Argentina3
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
80%Crowd
61%Market
+19Divergence

+19 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 19 points above market on Argentina leading at half-time, and that call landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap61%80% Argentina+19
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?61%74% Yes+13
3Who wins this match?81%92% Argentina+11
4Will both teams score?63%61% No-2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedJordan 1–3 Argentina — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina92%
Jordan5%
Draw3%
OutcomeArgentina
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
No61%
Yes39%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Argentina80%
Draw11%
Jordan10%
OutcomeArgentina
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: ArgentinaConsensus
Mkt 81%Crowd 92%+11pp
Result: Argentina · 0.01
: Deep
Will both teams score: NoUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 61%-2pp
Result: Yes · 0.74
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ArgentinaConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 80%+19pp
Result: Argentina · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 74%+13pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.01
Will both teams score0.74
Who leads at half-time0.06
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.14
Average0.24
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

A dominant Argentina performance: in front at the break, winning comfortably, goals flowing but Jordan kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Who wins this match?Argentina
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters · came true

Argentina in control throughout, leading at half-time in a free-scoring game where Jordan also found the net in a high-tally contest.

Who wins this match?Argentina
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Argentina ahead at the break and winning, but a tight, low-scoring affair with Jordan shut out and the goal tally staying modest.

Who wins this match?Argentina
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
73% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
141%549 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
220%272 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
311%148 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
45%70 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
52%32 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
62%31 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
72%29 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
82%29 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
92%23 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
101%19 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4272 · 20%
3 / 4687 · 52%
2 / 4277 · 21%
1 / 475 · 6%
0 / 417 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.84 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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