All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
Strasbourg1
AS Monaco FC1
The verdict

Strasbourg 1–1 AS Monaco

Strasbourg vs AS Monaco 643 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Monaco, and it went the other way.

68%Crowd on Monaco
44%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters643World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Monaco68%
Strasbourg Alsace18%
Tie ✓14%
OutcomeTie
Voters643
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓53%
Over 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters643
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓59%
No41%
OutcomeYes
Voters643
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MonacoUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 68%+24pp
Result: Tie · 1.23
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 53%+14pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 59%-4pp
Result: Yes · 0.34
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.23
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.44
Will both teams score0.34
Average0.67
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

The crowd's most popular vision: Monaco winning a free-scoring, open game where both sides find the net in a multi-goal contest.

Match resultMonaco
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 21% of voters

A disciplined Monaco shutout: the crowd pictured a tight, low-scoring win with one side kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultMonaco
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Monaco edging a cagey affair where both teams score but the game stays narrow, with few goals and a controlled visiting victory.

Match resultMonaco
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 643 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%173 voters
MonacoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
221%137 voters
MonacoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
312%79 voters
MonacoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
47%46 voters
MonacoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
56%41 voters
Strasbourg AlsaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
66%37 voters
Strasbourg AlsaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
75%32 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
85%29 voters
Strasbourg AlsaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
94%28 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
103%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (643 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 332 · 5%
2 / 3164 · 26%
1 / 3390 · 61%
0 / 357 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=643). Average 1.27 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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