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Coritiba
Grêmio
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
52%Crowd
30%Market
+22Divergence

+22 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd on Grêmio sits far above market, the widest gap across all three legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap30%52% Gremio+22
2Will both teams score?55%65% Yes+10
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?50%50% Under 2.5 goals0
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters565World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Gremio52%
Coritiba29%
Tie19%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters565
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters565
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters565
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Gremio
Mkt 30%Crowd 52%+22pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals
Mkt 50%Crowd 50%0pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 55%Crowd 65%+10pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

The crowd's most popular vision: Grêmio take the points in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultGremio
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tighter, more disciplined picture: Grêmio win but keep it close and controlled, with only one side scoring in a low-volume affair.

Match resultGremio
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

The home upset scenario: Coritiba claim the result in a lively, open match where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match resultCoritiba
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 565 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
122%122 voters
GremioPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
214%80 voters
GremioPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.6×
314%78 voters
CoritibaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.5×
411%60 voters
GremioPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
58%45 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
67%38 voters
CoritibaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
76%34 voters
GremioPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.7×
86%33 voters
CoritibaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.2×
95%29 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
104%24 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (565 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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