All resolved pollsResolved · 28 SEPT 2026Upset
Chicago BearsWon · Crowd had 43%27
Philadelphia EaglesCrowd's pick · 57%7
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 41.5. Chicago Bears won 27–7.

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles 7 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Over 41.5, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Over 41.5
49%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Philadelphia win by 5…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 41.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario43%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters7World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Philadelphia Eagles57%
Chicago Bears ✓43%
OutcomeChicago Bears
Voters7
ReadUpset
2Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more?
No ✓57%
Yes43%
OutcomeNo
Voters7
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Over 41.571%
Under 41.5 ✓29%
OutcomeUnder 41.5
Voters7
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Philadelphia wins 1st Half71%
Chicago wins 1st Half ✓29%
Tie 1st Half0%
OutcomeChicago wins 1st Half
Voters7
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Philadelphia EaglesUpset
Mkt 69%Crowd 57%-12pp
Result: Chicago Bears · 0.65
: Deep
Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 57%+7pp
Result: No · 0.37
: Deep
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Over 41.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 71%+22pp
Result: Under 41.5 · 1.01
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Philadelphia wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 71%+15pp
Result: Chicago wins 1st Half · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.65
Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more0.37
Will there be more than 41.5 points1.01
Who leads at half-time1.01
Average0.76
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 43% of voters

A dominant Eagles performance front to back: Philadelphia controlling the half, piling on points in a high-scoring affair, and winning comfortably by a clear margin.

Who wins?Philadelphia Eagles
Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Philadelphia wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Bears seize the first half and hold on, but the game stays close enough that Philadelphia avoids a big defeat, with both sides combining in an open, high-scoring contest.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters · came true

A Bears-controlled, grinding affair: Chicago leads from the first half, keeps the scoring tight, and denies Philadelphia any chance of a comfortable winning margin.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago wins 1st Half
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 7 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Philadelphia win by 5 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
143%3 voters
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Philadelphia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.5×
214%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Chicago wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.8×
314%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 41.5Called it!
Chicago wins 1st HalfCalled it!
6.9×
414%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 41.5Called it!
Philadelphia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.8×
514%1 voter
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Philadelphia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (7 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.61How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.5×The most-backed combination drew 3.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 14%
3 / 42 · 29%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 14%
0 / 43 · 43%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=7). Average 1.57 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.