All resolved pollsResolved · 17 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
São Paulo1
Vasco da GamaCrowd had 28%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. São Paulo won 1–0.

São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama 544 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters544World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sao Paulo ✓57%
Vasco da Gama28%
Tie15%
OutcomeSao Paulo
Voters544
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters544
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters544
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Sao PauloConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 57%+11pp
Result: Sao Paulo · 0.29
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 55%+8pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 69%+17pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.29
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.95
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: São Paulo winning an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net in a game with plenty of goals.

Match resultSao Paulo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A sizeable cluster saw Vasco turning the tables in a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match resultVasco da Gama
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A tighter São Paulo win, but still one where Vasco manage a reply, keeping the game competitive even if chances are limited.

Match resultSao Paulo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 544 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
128%151 voters
Sao PauloCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%74 voters
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
312%67 voters
Sao PauloCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
412%67 voters
Sao PauloCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
56%35 voters
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
65%29 voters
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
75%28 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
85%27 voters
Sao PauloCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
95%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
104%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (544 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 367 · 12%
2 / 3150 · 28%
1 / 3228 · 42%
0 / 399 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=544). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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