The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Colombia1
DR Congo0
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
67%Crowd
40%Market
+27Divergence

+27 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran far above market on both teams scoring. That gap was the session's defining divergence, and it did not align.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap40%67% Yes+27
2Who leads at half-time?46%67% Colombia+21
3Who wins this match?64%79% Colombia+15
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?43%56% Yes+13
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedColombia 1–0 Congo DR — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Colombia79%
DR Congo12%
Draw9%
OutcomeColombia
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Colombia67%
Draw20%
DR Congo13%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: ColombiaConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 79%+15pp
Result: Colombia · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 56%+13pp
Result: No · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 40%Crowd 67%+27pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ColombiaUpset
Mkt 46%Crowd 67%+21pp
Result: Draw · 1.11
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.63
Will both teams score0.90
Who leads at half-time1.11
Average0.67
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

A free-flowing Colombian victory: goals flying in at both ends, Colombia in front at the break and pulling clear across a high-tempo, open contest.

Who wins this match?Colombia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Colombia
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A tight, controlled Colombian win: one team keeps a clean sheet, the game stays low-scoring, and Colombia holds the lead from the first half through to the final whistle.

Who wins this match?Colombia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Colombia
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Colombia edges it in a close affair: both sides find the net but the scoring stays modest, with Colombia ahead at half-time and managing the result home.

Who wins this match?Colombia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Colombia
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
130%331 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ColombiaGot it wrong
1.5×
212%133 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ColombiaGot it wrong
1.6×
311%124 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ColombiaGot it wrong
0.7×
49%94 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ColombiaGot it wrong
0.9×
54%47 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.9×
64%43 voters
DR CongoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
6.8×
73%37 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.6×
83%37 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
6.4×
92%27 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.5×
102%27 voters
ColombiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 447 · 4%
3 / 4203 · 19%
2 / 4341 · 31%
1 / 4430 · 40%
0 / 466 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.76 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching