All resolved pollsResolved · 24 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Atlético Madrid1
Deportivo La Coruña0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Atlético Madrid won 1–0.

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo 551 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

61%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters551World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atletico ✓74%
Deportivo De La Coruna17%
Tie8%
OutcomeAtletico
Voters551
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals61%
Under 2.5 goals ✓39%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters551
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters551
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AtleticoConsensus
Mkt 76%Crowd 74%-2pp
Result: Atletico · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 61%-1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.74
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 61%+16pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.74
Will both teams score0.74
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

An open, end-to-end Atletico victory. Goals flying in at both ends, the favourite winning but neither side keeping a clean sheet.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters · came true

A tight, controlled Atletico win. Low on goals, one side shut out completely, the favourite grinding out a clean-sheet result.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Atletico win in a lopsided flurry. Plenty of goals but all flowing one way, Deportivo kept off the scoresheet despite an open game.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 551 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
135%192 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%79 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
313%74 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
412%65 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
56%32 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
65%26 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
73%19 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
83%18 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
93%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
103%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (551 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 379 · 14%
2 / 3179 · 32%
1 / 3247 · 45%
0 / 346 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=551). Average 1.53 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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