All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Green Bay PackersWon · Crowd had 33%23
Dallas CowboysCrowd's pick · 67%13
The verdict

The crowd backed Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay Packers won 23–13.

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Dallas Cowboys, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Dallas Cowboys
47%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Green Bay win by 2 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 52.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Dallas Cowboys67%
Green Bay Packers ✓33%
OutcomeGreen Bay Packers
Voters3
ReadMarket
2Will Green Bay win by 2 or more?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters3
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 52.5 points?
Under 52.5 ✓67%
Over 52.533%
OutcomeUnder 52.5
Voters3
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Dallas33%
Green Bay ✓33%
Tie33%
OutcomeGreen Bay
Voters3
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Dallas CowboysMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 67%+20pp
Result: Green Bay Packers · 0.90
: Deep
Will Green Bay win by 2 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 52.5 points: Under 52.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Under 52.5 · 0.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DallasMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 33%-15pp
Result: Green Bay · 0.67
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Green Bay win by 2 or more0.22
Will there be more than 52.5 points0.22
Who leads at half-time0.67
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A Cowboys-controlled game from the front, Dallas leading at the break in a low-scoring, grinding affair where Green Bay never pulls clear.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Green Bay win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A high-scoring shootout where Green Bay leads at half but Dallas ultimately prevails, with the margin staying within two scores despite the fireworks.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Green Bay win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Over 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Green Bay
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

A tight, low-scoring contest locked at the break, with Green Bay eventually pulling away by two or more in a controlled defensive game.

Who wins?Green Bay Packers
Will Green Bay win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Green Bay win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 52.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 52.5Called it!
DallasGot it wrong
6.8×
233%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 52.5Got it wrong
Green BayCalled it!
6.8×
333%1 voter
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 52.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
6.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.85How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call6.8×The most-backed combination drew 6.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-20. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.