All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
New York JetsCrowd's pick · 62%17
Green Bay PackersWon · Crowd had 38%20
The verdict

The crowd backed New York Jets. Green Bay Packers won 17–20.

New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers 569 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on New York Jets, and it went the other way.

62%Crowd on New York Jets
39%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Green Bay win by 4 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 44.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters569World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Jets62%
Green Bay Packers ✓38%
OutcomeGreen Bay Packers
Voters569
ReadMarket
2Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?
New York Jets +3.5 ✓58%
Green Bay Packers -3.542%
OutcomeNew York Jets +3.5
Voters569
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.558%
Under 44.5 ✓42%
OutcomeUnder 44.5
Voters569
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
New York Jets52%
Green Bay Packers30%
Tie ✓19%
OutcomeTie
Voters569
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York JetsMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 62%+23pp
Result: Green Bay Packers · 0.77
: Deep
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more: New York Jets +3.5Consensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 58%+5pp
Result: New York Jets +3.5 · 0.35
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5Market
Mkt 50%Crowd 58%+8pp
Result: Under 44.5 · 0.67
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New York JetsUpset
Mkt 35%Crowd 52%+17pp
Result: Tie · 1.02
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.77
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more0.35
Will there be more than 44.5 points0.67
Who leads at half-time1.02
Average0.70
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Jets win outright, keep it close enough to cover, points flow freely, and New York leads at the break. A confident, Jets-led offensive game.

Who wins?New York Jets
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?New York Jets +3.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New York Jets
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A tighter Jets scenario: New York wins and covers, but the scoring stays modest. A controlled, defensive-edged Jets victory with the home side ahead at half.

Who wins?New York Jets
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?New York Jets +3.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New York Jets
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

The minority Packers vision: Green Bay dominates wire to wire, wins by a margin, keeps the scoring low, and leads at the half. A clean, efficient Packers performance.

Who wins?Green Bay Packers
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?Green Bay Packers -3.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Green Bay Packers
41% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 569 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
121%118 voters
New York JetsGot it wrong
New York Jets +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
New York JetsGot it wrong
1.9×
212%69 voters
New York JetsGot it wrong
New York Jets +3.5Called it!
Under 44.5Called it!
New York JetsGot it wrong
1.5×
38%45 voters
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
Green Bay Packers -3.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
3.9×
47%37 voters
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
Green Bay Packers -3.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
2.3×
55%27 voters
New York JetsGot it wrong
Green Bay Packers -3.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
New York JetsGot it wrong
0.6×
64%23 voters
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
New York Jets +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
1.1×
74%21 voters
New York JetsGot it wrong
New York Jets +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
TieCalled it!
0.9×
84%20 voters
New York JetsGot it wrong
Green Bay Packers -3.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
TieCalled it!
1.2×
93%19 voters
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
New York Jets +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
New York JetsGot it wrong
0.5×
103%16 voters
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
Green Bay Packers -3.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
New York JetsGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (569 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 410 · 2%
3 / 455 · 10%
2 / 4228 · 40%
1 / 4234 · 41%
0 / 442 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=569). Average 1.57 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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