All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
LiverpoolCrowd's pick · 83%0
FulhamCrowd had 10%0
The verdict

Liverpool 0–0 Fulham

Liverpool vs Fulham 661 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Liverpool, and it went the other way.

83%Crowd on Liverpool
68%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario42%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters661World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Liverpool83%
Fulham10%
Tie ✓7%
OutcomeTie
Voters661
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals64%
Under 2.5 goals ✓36%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters661
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters661
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: LiverpoolUpset
Mkt 68%Crowd 83%+15pp
Result: Tie · 1.56
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 66%Crowd 64%-2pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.82
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 66%+7pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.56
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.82
Will both teams score0.87
Average1.08
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 42% of voters

Liverpool in control, an open and flowing game, both sides finding the net in a high-scoring home win. The crowd's dominant vision.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Liverpool grinding out a tight, low-key win, keeping a clean sheet and shutting the game down without needing to open up.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Liverpool running up the score but keeping Fulham out entirely, a one-sided attacking display with the sheet staying clean.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 661 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
142%280 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
215%101 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
313%87 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
412%78 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
54%26 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
63%21 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
72%15 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
82%13 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
92%12 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.1×
102%11 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (661 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 312 · 2%
2 / 3133 · 20%
1 / 3210 · 32%
0 / 3306 · 46%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=661). Average 0.77 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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