All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ArsenalWon · Crowd had 82%2
Leeds UnitedCrowd had 12%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Arsenal won 2–1.

Arsenal vs Leeds United 556 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

62%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters556World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Arsenal ✓82%
Leeds United12%
Tie6%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters556
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters556
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters556
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ArsenalConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 82%+12pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 65%+12pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 62%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.05
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.24
Will both teams score0.29
Average0.19
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Arsenal winning an open, end-to-end game with both sides finding the net in a match that delivers on goals.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tighter, more controlled Arsenal victory, with Leeds kept scoreless and the game settled by a narrow, low-key margin.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Arsenal winning a high-scoring affair but keeping a clean sheet, with the goals coming entirely from one side of the pitch.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 556 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
140%220 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
216%88 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
315%86 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
411%62 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
55%28 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
63%14 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
72%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
82%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
92%11 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
102%11 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (556 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3220 · 40%
2 / 3189 · 34%
1 / 3127 · 23%
0 / 320 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=556). Average 2.1 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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