All resolved pollsResolved · 15 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Denver BroncosWon · Crowd had 50%17
Seattle SeahawksCrowd had 50%14
The verdict

The crowd backed Denver. Denver Broncos won 17–14.

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks 2 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points above the market's price on Denver, and it went the other way.

50%Crowd on Denver
39%Market price
+11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Seattle win by 3 or moreSurprise
there be more than 42.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters2World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Denver Broncos ✓50%
Seattle Seahawks50%
OutcomeDenver Broncos
Voters2
ReadCrowd
2Will Seattle win by 3 or more?
Yes50%
No ✓50%
OutcomeNo
Voters2
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.550%
Under 42.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters2
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Denver ✓50%
Seattle50%
Tie0%
OutcomeDenver
Voters2
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Denver BroncosCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 50%+8pp
Result: Denver Broncos · 0.50
: Deep
Will Seattle win by 3 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 50%-4pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Market
Mkt 45%Crowd 50%+5pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DenverCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 50%+11pp
Result: Denver · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Seattle win by 3 or more0.50
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.50
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

Denver controls the game from the first half, wins without covering a big spread, in a higher-scoring contest that stays lively throughout.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will Seattle win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver
Scenario 2 · 50% of voters

Seattle seizes the lead at the break and pulls clear by the final whistle, grinding out a decisive, low-scoring road win.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Will Seattle win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Seattle
100% of voters backed the top 2 scenarios · 2 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Seattle win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%1 voter
Denver BroncosCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
DenverCalled it!
8.0×
250%1 voter
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
SeattleGot it wrong
8.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2 voters · top 2 of 2 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.88How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call8.0×The most-backed combination drew 8.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 50%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.