All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Newcastle United2
Hull CityCrowd had 18%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Newcastle United won 2–1.

Newcastle vs Hull City 595 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

53%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
41%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters595World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Newcastle ✓67%
Hull City18%
Tie15%
OutcomeNewcastle
Voters595
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals53%
Over 2.5 goals ✓47%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters595
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters595
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: NewcastleConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 67%+8pp
Result: Newcastle · 0.16
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 53%+12pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 64%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.16
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.56
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.33
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters · came true

A lively Newcastle win with both sides finding the net and the game spilling past the goals line, an open and entertaining contest the crowd pictured more often than chance alone

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Newcastle grinding out a tight, controlled victory, keeping Hull off the scoresheet and the game locked below the goals line, a disciplined and low-key home win.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Newcastle edging it in a close affair where Hull nicked a goal but the scoring stayed contained, a narrow win with just enough action to keep both teams on the board.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 595 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%158 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
218%108 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
315%87 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%45 voters
NewcastleCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
57%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
67%39 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
76%36 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
84%26 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
94%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (595 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3158 · 27%
2 / 3192 · 32%
1 / 3201 · 34%
0 / 344 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=595). Average 1.78 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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