All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Cruz Azul
León
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
50%Crowd
64%Market
-14Divergence

-14 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well below the market on Over 2.5 goals, the widest gap across all three legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Biggest gap64%50% Over 2.5 goals-14
2Will both teams score?63%67% Yes+4
3Match result58%55% Cruz Azul-3
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters543World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Cruz Azul55%
Leon30%
Tie15%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters543
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters543
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters543
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Cruz Azul
Mkt 58%Crowd 55%-3pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 64%Crowd 50%-14pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 63%Crowd 67%+4pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

Cruz Azul take the points in an open, entertaining game where both sides find the net and goals come freely. The crowd's dominant vision.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Cruz Azul grind out a clean, controlled win in a tight, low-scoring affair where León never troubles the scoreboard. A compact, disciplined scenario.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Cruz Azul win a cagey match that still sees León grab a consolation, keeping both teams on the scoresheet despite few goals overall.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 543 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%145 voters
Cruz AzulPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
213%72 voters
Cruz AzulPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
311%61 voters
Cruz AzulPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
411%61 voters
LeonPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
59%48 voters
LeonPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.9×
66%32 voters
LeonPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.2×
76%30 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
85%28 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
2.1×
94%20 voters
LeonPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.7×
104%20 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (543 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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