All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Upset
Tijuana2
AtlasWon · Crowd had 41%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Atlas won 2–3.

Tijuana vs Atlas: Liga MX 601 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters601World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tijuana de Caliente44%
Atlas ✓41%
Tie14%
OutcomeAtlas
Voters601
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters601
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters601
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Tijuana de CalienteUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 44%-4pp
Result: Atlas · 0.56
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 51%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 69%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.56
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters · came true

A high-scoring away win: Atlas take the points in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultAtlas
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A lively home victory: Tijuana win a free-scoring contest with both teams contributing goals in a match that refuses to stay quiet.

Match resultTijuana de Caliente
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A tight, controlled home win: Tijuana grind out the result in a low-event game where one side keeps a clean sheet and chances are scarce.

Match resultTijuana de Caliente
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 601 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%124 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
219%112 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
312%70 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
410%59 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
59%56 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
69%55 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
76%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
84%25 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
94%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (601 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3124 · 21%
2 / 3205 · 34%
1 / 3186 · 31%
0 / 386 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=601). Average 1.61 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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