All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Kansas City ChiefsWon · Crowd had 67%22
Los Angeles ChargersCrowd had 33%6
The verdict

The crowd backed a draw. Kansas City Chiefs won 22–6.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 65 points above the market's price on Tie, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Tie
2%Market price
+65Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
Kansas City win by 9 or…Surprise
there be more than 42.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Kansas City Chiefs ✓67%
Los Angeles Chargers33%
OutcomeKansas City Chiefs
Voters3
ReadConsensus
2Will Kansas City win by 9 or more?
No67%
Yes ✓33%
OutcomeYes
Voters3
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Under 42.5 ✓67%
Over 42.533%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters3
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Tie67%
Kansas City ✓33%
Los Angeles C0%
OutcomeKansas City
Voters3
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Kansas City ChiefsConsensus
Mkt 79%Crowd 67%-12pp
Result: Kansas City Chiefs · 0.22
: Deep
Will Kansas City win by 9 or more: NoUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: Yes · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Under 42.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: TieMarket
Mkt 2%Crowd 67%+65pp
Result: Kansas City · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Kansas City win by 9 or more0.90
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.22
Who leads at half-time0.90
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A low-scoring Chiefs win, comfortable but not a blowout, with Kansas City controlling the half from the front.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 9 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A high-scoring Chiefs romp with both teams trading points early, the game level at the break before Kansas City pulls clear.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 9 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

A tight, grinding upset with defences dominant, the scoreboard bare at half and the Chargers edging through in the end.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Will Kansas City win by 9 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Kansas City win by 9 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Kansas CityCalled it!
3.4×
233%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
6.8×
333%1 voter
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
3.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.75How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.4×The most-backed combination drew 3.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.