All resolved pollsResolved · 23 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
JordanCrowd had 25%1
AlgeriaWon · Crowd had 53%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Algeria won 1–2.

Jordan vs. Algeria 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Yes
47%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Algeria53%
Jordan25%
Draw21%
OutcomeAlgeria
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No52%
Yes48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Algeria45%
Draw30%
Jordan25%
OutcomeJordan
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: AlgeriaConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 53%-9pp
Result: Algeria · 0.33
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 52%+1pp
Result: Yes · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 65%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AlgeriaUpset
Mkt 43%Crowd 45%+2pp
Result: Jordan · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.33
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.54
Will both teams score0.24
Who leads at half-time0.85
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A goal-filled Algeria victory from the first whistle, with both sides finding the net and Algeria firmly in front at the break.

Who wins this match?Algeria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Algeria
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

An open, high-scoring upset with Jordan seizing control early and both teams trading goals in a lively contest.

Who wins this match?Jordan
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Jordan
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, low-event Algeria win, with the defence holding firm, only one side scoring, and Algeria leading throughout.

Who wins this match?Algeria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Algeria
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
117%220 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
AlgeriaGot it wrong
2.3×
210%125 voters
JordanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanCalled it!
4.9×
38%101 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AlgeriaGot it wrong
1.8×
47%95 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AlgeriaGot it wrong
0.9×
57%94 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
6.3×
65%69 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
2.5×
75%62 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.6×
84%54 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
AlgeriaGot it wrong
1.0×
93%43 voters
JordanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
JordanCalled it!
1.6×
103%42 voters
JordanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
JordanCalled it!
2.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.36How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 437 · 3%
3 / 4415 · 32%
2 / 4371 · 29%
1 / 4360 · 28%
0 / 4118 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.