The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Jordan1
Algeria2
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
65%Crowd
47%Market
+18Divergence

+18 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams to score, and that call aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap47%65% Yes+18
2Who wins this match?62%53% Algeria-9
3Who leads at half-time?43%45% Algeria+2
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?51%52% No+1
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedJordan 1–2 Algeria — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Algeria53%
Jordan25%
Draw21%
OutcomeAlgeria
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No52%
Yes48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Algeria45%
Draw30%
Jordan25%
OutcomeJordan
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: AlgeriaConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 53%-9pp
Result: Algeria · 0.33
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 52%+1pp
Result: Yes · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 65%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AlgeriaUpset
Mkt 43%Crowd 45%+2pp
Result: Jordan · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.33
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.54
Will both teams score0.24
Who leads at half-time0.85
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A goal-filled Algeria victory from the first whistle, with both sides finding the net and Algeria firmly in front at the break.

Who wins this match?Algeria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Algeria
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

An open, high-scoring upset with Jordan seizing control early and both teams trading goals in a lively contest.

Who wins this match?Jordan
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Jordan
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, low-event Algeria win, with the defence holding firm, only one side scoring, and Algeria leading throughout.

Who wins this match?Algeria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Algeria
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
117%220 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
AlgeriaGot it wrong
2.3×
210%125 voters
JordanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanCalled it!
4.9×
38%101 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AlgeriaGot it wrong
1.8×
47%95 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AlgeriaGot it wrong
0.9×
57%94 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
6.3×
65%69 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
2.5×
75%62 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.6×
84%54 voters
AlgeriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
AlgeriaGot it wrong
1.0×
93%43 voters
JordanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
JordanCalled it!
1.6×
103%42 voters
JordanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
JordanCalled it!
2.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.36How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 437 · 3%
3 / 4415 · 32%
2 / 4371 · 29%
1 / 4360 · 28%
0 / 4118 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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