All resolved pollsResolved · 18 SEPT 2026Upset
BrentfordWon · Crowd had 12%3
ChelseaCrowd's pick · 78%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Chelsea. Brentford won 3–0.

Brentford vs Chelsea 614 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 34 points above the market's price on Chelsea, and it went the other way.

78%Crowd on Chelsea
44%Market price
+34Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario42%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters614World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Chelsea78%
Brentford ✓12%
Tie10%
OutcomeBrentford
Voters614
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters614
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters614
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ChelseaUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 78%+34pp
Result: Brentford · 1.39
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 65%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 68%Crowd 69%+1pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.39
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.24
Will both teams score0.95
Average0.86
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 42% of voters

The dominant crowd vision: Chelsea controlling a free-flowing, open game with chances at both ends and goals to spare.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A compact, disciplined Chelsea shutout. Low scoring, one team doing all the damage, the other kept quiet.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Chelsea edging a tight, scrappy contest where both sides find the net but the game stays short on goals overall.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 614 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
142%255 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
213%82 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
312%72 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
411%69 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
56%37 voters
BrentfordCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
64%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
73%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
82%15 voters
BrentfordCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
92%13 voters
BrentfordCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (614 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 310 · 2%
2 / 3128 · 21%
1 / 3381 · 62%
0 / 395 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=614). Average 1.09 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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