The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Argentina3
Switzerland1
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
76%Crowd
45%Market
+31Divergence

+31 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 31 points above market on both teams scoring, and that read aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap45%76% Yes+31
2Who leads at half-time?40%63% Argentina wins 1st Half+23
3Who wins this match?73%86% Argentina advances+13
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?43%56% Yes+13
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedArgentina 3–1 Switzerland (after extra time) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina advances86%
Switzerland advances14%
OutcomeArgentina advances
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half63%
Tie 1st Half24%
Switzerland wins 1st Half13%
OutcomeArgentina wins 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes76%
No24%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Argentina advancesConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 86%+13pp
Result: Argentina advances · 0.04
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 40%Crowd 63%+23pp
Result: Argentina wins 1st Half · 0.21
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 56%+13pp
Result: No · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 76%+31pp
Result: Yes · 0.12
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.04
Who leads at half-time0.21
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.63
Will both teams score in regulation time0.12
Average0.25
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters

Argentina in control from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring, open game where both sides find the net.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters · came true

Argentina ahead at half-time and through to the next round, but the game stays tight on goals with both teams getting on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

An even first half gives way to a high-scoring second period, Argentina eventually pulling clear in a match where neither side keeps a clean sheet.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
131%511 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
218%293 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
38%137 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
47%109 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
56%103 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
65%91 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%70 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
83%51 voters
Switzerland advancesGot it wrong
Switzerland wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
3.9×
93%45 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
Switzerland wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
102%37 voters
Switzerland advancesGot it wrong
Switzerland wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
3.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4293 · 18%
3 / 4747 · 45%
2 / 4459 · 27%
1 / 4155 · 9%
0 / 419 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 2.68 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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