All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Houston TexansCrowd's pick · 65%6
Cincinnati BengalsWon · Crowd had 35%20
The verdict

The crowd backed Houston Texans. Cincinnati Bengals won 6–20.

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals 550 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 6 points above the market's price on Houston Texans, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Houston Texans
59%Market price
+6Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
Houston win by 2 or moreSurprise
there be more than 46.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters550World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Houston Texans65%
Cincinnati Bengals ✓35%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals
Voters550
ReadUpset
2Will Houston win by 2 or more?
Houston Texans -1.558%
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 ✓42%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals +1.5
Voters550
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 46.5 points?
Over 46.553%
Under 46.5 ✓47%
OutcomeUnder 46.5
Voters550
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Houston Texans48%
Cincinnati Bengals ✓31%
Tie21%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals
Voters550
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Houston TexansUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 65%+6pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals · 0.85
: Deep
Will Houston win by 2 or more: Houston Texans -1.5Upset
Mkt 56%Crowd 58%+2pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be more than 46.5 points: Over 46.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 53%+4pp
Result: Under 46.5 · 0.56
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: Houston TexansUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 48%-3pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals · 0.75
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.85
Will Houston win by 2 or more0.67
Will there be more than 46.5 points0.56
Who leads at half-time0.75
Average0.71
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

Houston controls from the jump, leads at the break, wins comfortably, and both offences combine to push the total past the line in a high-scoring home statement.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 2 or more?Houston Texans -1.5
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston Texans
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Houston grinds out a disciplined win, leads at halftime, covers the spread, but defences keep the scoring contained well below the total.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 2 or more?Houston Texans -1.5
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Under 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston Texans
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Cincinnati seizes control early, leads at the break, and both teams trade scores in an open game that ends with the Bengals taking the outright win.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Will Houston win by 2 or more?Cincinnati Bengals +1.5
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati Bengals
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 550 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Houston win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 46.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
117%93 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans -1.5Got it wrong
Over 46.5Got it wrong
Houston TexansGot it wrong
1.8×
213%71 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans -1.5Got it wrong
Under 46.5Called it!
Houston TexansGot it wrong
1.5×
39%47 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5Called it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
3.5×
46%33 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans -1.5Got it wrong
Under 46.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.6×
55%26 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5Called it!
Under 46.5Called it!
Houston TexansGot it wrong
0.8×
64%24 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5Called it!
Under 46.5Called it!
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
2.0×
74%23 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans -1.5Got it wrong
Under 46.5Called it!
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
0.8×
84%21 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5Called it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
Houston TexansGot it wrong
0.5×
94%20 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5Called it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
0.8×
103%18 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5Called it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
Houston TexansGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (550 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 424 · 4%
3 / 493 · 17%
2 / 4146 · 27%
1 / 4184 · 33%
0 / 4103 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=550). Average 1.55 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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