All resolved pollsResolved · 6 JUL 2026Crowd beat the market
USA1
Belgium4
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Belgium won 1–4.

USA vs Belgium 2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

72%Crowd on Yes
60%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Belgium advances55%
USA advances45%
OutcomeBelgium advances
Voters2k
ReadCrowd
2Who leads at half-time?
USA wins 1st Half35%
Belgium wins 1st Half34%
Tie 1st Half31%
OutcomeBelgium wins 1st Half
Voters2k
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No53%
Yes47%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Belgium advancesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 55%+9pp
Result: Belgium advances · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: USA wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 31%Crowd 35%+4pp
Result: Belgium wins 1st Half · 0.65
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 53%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 72%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.40
Who leads at half-time0.65
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.56
Will both teams score in regulation time0.16
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 12% of voters

A USA-controlled match from the front: the Americans seize the half-time lead, both sides find the net, and the game opens up past three goals.

Who wins this match?USA advances
Who leads at half-time?USA wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters · came true

Belgium dominant and in front at the break, a high-scoring affair with both teams on the scoresheet and the game bursting past three goals.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Belgium in control and leading at half-time, but the match stays tight on goals, with both sides scoring in a compact, low-volume contest.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
112%233 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
USA wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.2×
212%233 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.9×
310%196 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
410%196 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
USA wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
57%131 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
66%108 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
75%107 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%88 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
94%80 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
104%79 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4233 · 12%
3 / 4432 · 22%
2 / 4689 · 35%
1 / 4466 · 24%
0 / 4136 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2k). Average 2.08 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.