The match · sportsResolvedCrowd beat the market
USA1
Belgium4
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
72%Crowd
60%Market
+12Divergence

+12 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, that read aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap60%72% Yes+12
2Who wins this match?46%55% Belgium advances+9
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?46%53% No+7
4Who leads at half-time?31%35% USA wins 1st Half+4
How it landed:Crowd beat the marketUnited States 1–4 Belgium — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Belgium advances55%
USA advances45%
OutcomeBelgium advances
Voters2k
ReadCrowd
2Who leads at half-time?
USA wins 1st Half35%
Belgium wins 1st Half34%
Tie 1st Half31%
OutcomeBelgium wins 1st Half
Voters2k
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No53%
Yes47%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Belgium advancesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 55%+9pp
Result: Belgium advances · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: USA wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 31%Crowd 35%+4pp
Result: Belgium wins 1st Half · 0.65
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 53%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 72%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.40
Who leads at half-time0.65
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.56
Will both teams score in regulation time0.16
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 12% of voters

A USA-controlled match from the front: the Americans seize the half-time lead, both sides find the net, and the game opens up past three goals.

Who wins this match?USA advances
Who leads at half-time?USA wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters · came true

Belgium dominant and in front at the break, a high-scoring affair with both teams on the scoresheet and the game bursting past three goals.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Belgium in control and leading at half-time, but the match stays tight on goals, with both sides scoring in a compact, low-volume contest.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
112%233 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
USA wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.2×
212%233 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.9×
310%196 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
410%196 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
USA wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
57%131 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
66%108 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
75%107 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%88 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
94%80 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
104%79 voters
USA advancesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4233 · 12%
3 / 4432 · 22%
2 / 4689 · 35%
1 / 4466 · 24%
0 / 4136 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2k). Average 2.08 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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