The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
New Zealand1
Egypt3
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
39%Crowd
13%Market
+26Divergence

+26 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd on half-time leader: New Zealand far above market, and it landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap13%39% New Zealand+26
2Will both teams score?44%67% Yes+23
3Who wins?60%45% Egypt-15
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?44%53% Yes+9
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedNew Zealand 1–3 Egypt — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Egypt45%
New Zealand39%
Draw16%
OutcomeEgypt
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes53%
No47%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
New Zealand39%
Egypt35%
Draw26%
OutcomeNew Zealand
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: EgyptConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 45%-15pp
Result: Egypt · 0.48
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 53%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 67%+23pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New ZealandCrowd
Mkt 13%Crowd 39%+26pp
Result: New Zealand · 0.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.48
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.44
Will both teams score0.22
Who leads at half-time0.56
Average0.43
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A vision of New Zealand seizing the initiative early, both sides trading goals in an open game, but the Kiwis ultimately holding on for the win.

Who wins?New Zealand
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?New Zealand
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Egypt dominant from the first whistle, both teams finding the net in a free-scoring contest, with Egypt in control at the break and through to the final result.

Who wins?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Egypt
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A tight, controlled Egypt performance, shutting out New Zealand and grinding out a clean, low-scoring victory with the lead established early and defended throughout.

Who wins?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Egypt
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
117%203 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
New ZealandCalled it!
3.1×
214%172 voters
EgyptCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
EgyptGot it wrong
2.5×
37%82 voters
EgyptCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
EgyptGot it wrong
2.8×
46%69 voters
EgyptCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
EgyptGot it wrong
1.1×
56%67 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
New ZealandCalled it!
2.3×
65%62 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
New ZealandCalled it!
1.1×
74%51 voters
EgyptCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.3×
84%50 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
6.4×
94%48 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
3.0×
103%41 voters
EgyptCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.38How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.1×The most-backed combination drew 3.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-19. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 430 · 2%
3 / 4452 · 37%
2 / 4347 · 29%
1 / 4308 · 25%
0 / 475 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.04 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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