All resolved pollsResolved · 2 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Toluca vs Necaxa
Toluca 3–1 Necaxa
The verdict

Toluca 3–1 Necaxa

Toluca vs Necaxa 797 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 33 points above the market's price on Necaxa, and it went the other way.

49%Crowd on Necaxa
16%Market price
+33Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters797World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Necaxa49%
Toluca35%
Tie17%
OutcomeToluca
Voters797
ReadMarket
2Who leads at half-time?
Toluca wins 1st Half40%
Necaxa wins 1st Half32%
Tie 1st Half28%
OutcomeToluca wins 1st Half
Voters797
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes57%
No43%
OutcomeYes
Voters797
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters797
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: NecaxaMarket
Mkt 16%Crowd 49%+33pp
Result: Toluca · 0.69
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Toluca wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 40%-11pp
Result: Toluca wins 1st Half · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 57%-8pp
Result: Yes · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 70%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.69
Who leads at half-time0.54
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.37
Will both teams score in regulation time0.18
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 11% of voters

A Necaxa-dominant vision: the visitors seize the half-time lead, both sides find the net, and the game ends in a high-scoring Necaxa victory.

Who wins this match?Necaxa
Who leads at half-time?Necaxa wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters · came true

Toluca in control from the off, leading at the break in an open, end-to-end contest where both teams score and the hosts close out a full-match win.

Who wins this match?Toluca
Who leads at half-time?Toluca wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A comeback narrative: Toluca lead at half-time but Necaxa overturn the deficit in a lively, goal-filled second half to take the match.

Who wins this match?Necaxa
Who leads at half-time?Toluca wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
29% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 797 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
111%91 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Necaxa wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.8×
211%85 voters
TolucaCalled it!
Toluca wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.9×
37%53 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Toluca wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
46%50 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Necaxa wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
55%43 voters
TolucaCalled it!
Toluca wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
64%34 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%29 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Necaxa wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
84%29 voters
TolucaCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
93%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
5.5×
103%25 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Toluca wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (797 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 485 · 11%
3 / 4177 · 22%
2 / 4276 · 35%
1 / 4185 · 23%
0 / 474 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=797). Average 2.02 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.