All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCrowd had 33%16
Minnesota VikingsWon · Crowd had 67%23
The verdict

The crowd backed Tampa Bay wins 1st Half. Minnesota Vikings won 16–23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Tampa Bay wins 1st Half, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Tampa Bay wins 1st Half
42%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Minnesota win by 2 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 42.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Minnesota Vikings ✓67%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers33%
OutcomeMinnesota Vikings
Voters3
ReadConsensus
2Will Minnesota win by 2 or more?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters3
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Under 42.5 ✓67%
Over 42.533%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters3
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Tampa Bay wins 1st Half67%
Minnesota wins 1st Half ✓33%
Tie 1st Half0%
OutcomeMinnesota wins 1st Half
Voters3
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Minnesota VikingsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 67%+13pp
Result: Minnesota Vikings · 0.22
: Deep
Will Minnesota win by 2 or more: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Under 42.5Consensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Tampa Bay wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 67%+25pp
Result: Minnesota wins 1st Half · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Minnesota win by 2 or more0.22
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.22
Who leads at half-time0.90
Average0.39
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

Minnesota takes the game and covers a two-score margin in a high-scoring affair, but Tampa Bay seizes the early initiative and leads at the break.

Who wins?Minnesota Vikings
Will Minnesota win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters · came true

A controlled, lower-scoring contest where Minnesota dominates from the first whistle, leads at half-time, and seals a comfortable winning margin.

Who wins?Minnesota Vikings
Will Minnesota win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Minnesota wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

A tight, defensive game where Tampa Bay sets the tone early, leads at the break, and holds on for a narrow final victory that keeps Minnesota within striking distance throughout.

Who wins?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Will Minnesota win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay wins 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Minnesota win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Tampa Bay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.4×
233%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 42.5Called it!
Minnesota wins 1st HalfCalled it!
3.4×
333%1 voter
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Tampa Bay wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
6.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.75How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.4×The most-backed combination drew 3.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 33%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.