All resolved pollsResolved · 27 JUN 2026Upset
EgyptCrowd's pick · 59%1
IranCrowd had 26%1
The verdict

Egypt 1–1 Iran

Egypt vs. Iran 884 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Egypt, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on Egypt
40%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters884World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Egypt59%
Iran26%
Draw15%
OutcomeDraw
Voters884
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No58%
Yes42%
OutcomeNo
Voters884
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeYes
Voters884
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Egypt44%
Draw31%
Iran24%
OutcomeDraw
Voters884
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: EgyptUpset
Mkt 40%Crowd 59%+19pp
Result: Draw · 1.14
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 58%-7pp
Result: No · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 56%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.39
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: EgyptMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 44%+15pp
Result: Draw · 0.73
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.14
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.35
Will both teams score0.39
Who leads at half-time0.73
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A high-scoring Egypt performance: goals at both ends, Egypt in front at the break and still standing as winners at the final whistle.

Who wins this match?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Egypt
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A tight, controlled Egypt win: low on goals, only one side scoring, Egypt leading at half-time and shutting the game down from there.

Who wins this match?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Egypt
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A cagey first half ending level, then Egypt finding a single decisive goal to take the points in a match short on chances and scoring.

Who wins this match?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 884 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
114%125 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
EgyptGot it wrong
2.3×
213%112 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
EgyptGot it wrong
1.9×
36%56 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.4×
46%52 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
EgyptGot it wrong
0.7×
55%47 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
EgyptGot it wrong
1.1×
65%47 voters
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IranGot it wrong
3.6×
75%43 voters
IranGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
IranGot it wrong
3.1×
85%40 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
3.0×
94%36 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
103%27 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (884 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 440 · 5%
3 / 4120 · 14%
2 / 4250 · 28%
1 / 4391 · 44%
0 / 483 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=884). Average 1.6 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.