The matchResolvedUpset
Egypt1
Iran1
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
59%Crowd
40%Market
+19Divergence

+19 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd piled into Egypt as winner, well above market, while the market favoured a draw.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap40%59% Egypt+19
2Who leads at half-time?29%44% Egypt+15
3Will both teams score?47%56% Yes+9
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?65%58% No-7
How it landed:UpsetEgypt 1–1 Iran — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters884World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Egypt59%
Iran26%
Draw15%
OutcomeDraw
Voters884
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No58%
Yes42%
OutcomeNo
Voters884
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeYes
Voters884
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Egypt44%
Draw31%
Iran24%
OutcomeDraw
Voters884
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: EgyptUpset
Mkt 40%Crowd 59%+19pp
Result: Draw · 1.14
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 58%-7pp
Result: No · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 56%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.39
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: EgyptMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 44%+15pp
Result: Draw · 0.73
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.14
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.35
Will both teams score0.39
Who leads at half-time0.73
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A high-scoring Egypt performance: goals at both ends, Egypt in front at the break and still standing as winners at the final whistle.

Who wins this match?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Egypt
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A tight, controlled Egypt win: low on goals, only one side scoring, Egypt leading at half-time and shutting the game down from there.

Who wins this match?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Egypt
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A cagey first half ending level, then Egypt finding a single decisive goal to take the points in a match short on chances and scoring.

Who wins this match?Egypt
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 884 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
114%125 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
EgyptGot it wrong
2.3×
213%112 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
EgyptGot it wrong
1.9×
36%56 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.4×
46%52 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
EgyptGot it wrong
0.7×
55%47 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
EgyptGot it wrong
1.1×
65%47 voters
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IranGot it wrong
3.6×
75%43 voters
IranGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
IranGot it wrong
3.1×
85%40 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
3.0×
94%36 voters
EgyptGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
103%27 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (884 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 440 · 5%
3 / 4120 · 14%
2 / 4250 · 28%
1 / 4391 · 44%
0 / 483 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=884). Average 1.6 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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