All resolved pollsResolved · 31 JUL 2026Upset
PueblaCrowd had 26%1
CD Guadalajara1
The verdict

Puebla 1–1 Guadalajara

Puebla vs Guadalajara 799 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Guadalajara, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Guadalajara
57%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario8%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters799World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Guadalajara66%
Puebla26%
Tie9%
OutcomeTie
Voters799
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half-time?
Guadalajara wins 1st Half35%
Tie 1st Half33%
Puebla wins 1st Half32%
OutcomePuebla wins 1st Half
Voters799
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No51%
Yes49%
OutcomeNo
Voters799
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters799
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: GuadalajaraUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 66%+9pp
Result: Tie · 1.33
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Guadalajara wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 42%Crowd 35%-7pp
Result: Puebla wins 1st Half · 0.69
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 51%+5pp
Result: No · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 63%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.33
Who leads at half-time0.69
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.48
Will both teams score in regulation time0.27
Average0.69
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 8% of voters

A comeback vision: Puebla seizes the first half, then Guadalajara overturns it in a high-scoring, both-teams-score finish.

Who wins this match?Guadalajara
Who leads at half-time?Puebla wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 8% of voters

A dominant Guadalajara narrative: leading from the first whistle through a free-scoring, end-to-end regulation.

Who wins this match?Guadalajara
Who leads at half-time?Guadalajara wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, low-scoring match with honours even at the break, before Guadalajara edges it with both sides finding the net.

Who wins this match?Guadalajara
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
24% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 799 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
18%65 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Puebla wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
28%63 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Guadalajara wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
38%62 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
48%60 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Guadalajara wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
57%54 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
65%41 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Puebla wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
75%39 voters
PueblaGot it wrong
Puebla wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
85%38 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
95%38 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Guadalajara wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
104%33 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Guadalajara wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (799 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-12The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-12; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 48 · 1%
3 / 482 · 10%
2 / 4335 · 42%
1 / 4290 · 36%
0 / 484 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=799). Average 1.55 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.