VoxPop top scenarios
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Canada6
Qatar0
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
68%Crowd
37%Market
+31Divergence
+31 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap37%68% Yes+31
2Who wins?75%65% Canada-10
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?49%55% Yes+6
4Who leads at half-time?52%54% Canada+2
Crowd & market agreedCanada 6–0 Qatar — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeCanada
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeCanada
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.19
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.40
Will both teams score0.92
Who leads at half-time0.32
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
124%271 voters
CanadaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
CanadaCalled it!
1.8×
29%107 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CanadaCalled it!
0.9×
39%107 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
CanadaCalled it!
1.8×
49%103 voters
QatarGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
QatarGot it wrong
4.0×
57%77 voters
CanadaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
CanadaCalled it!
1.1×
65%53 voters
QatarGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
QatarGot it wrong
2.5×
74%46 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
2.0×
83%38 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
4.7×
93%35 voters
CanadaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
QatarGot it wrong
0.5×
103%32 voters
CanadaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.06 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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