All resolved pollsResolved · 26 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
SevillaCrowd's pick · 71%
OsasunaCrowd had 15%
Resolved
The verdict

Sevilla vs Osasuna

Sevilla vs Osasuna 568 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Sevilla, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Sevilla
50%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters568World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sevilla ✓71%
Osasuna15%
Tie14%
OutcomeSevilla
Voters568
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals52%
Under 2.5 goals ✓48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters568
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters568
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SevillaConsensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 71%+21pp
Result: Sevilla · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 52%+7pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 65%+15pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.13
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.54
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

A Sevilla win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultSevilla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters · came true

Sevilla grind out a tight, controlled victory, keeping Osasuna off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, disciplined affair.

Match resultSevilla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Sevilla win a close, scrappy game where both teams manage a goal but the match stays under the goals threshold.

Match resultSevilla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 568 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%191 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
218%103 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
314%80 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
47%39 voters
OsasunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
55%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
65%30 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.4×
75%26 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
83%17 voters
OsasunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
93%15 voters
OsasunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
102%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (568 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3103 · 18%
2 / 3153 · 27%
1 / 3259 · 46%
0 / 353 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=568). Average 1.54 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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