All resolved pollsResolved · 9 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
LiverpoolWon · Crowd had 65%2
Atlético Madrid1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Liverpool won 2–1.

Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid 508 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Yes
60%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters508World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Liverpool ✓65%
Atletico22%
Tie13%
OutcomeLiverpool
Voters508
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters508
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters508
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: LiverpoolConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 65%+8pp
Result: Liverpool · 0.19
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 54%-7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 74%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.19
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.14
Average0.25
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Liverpool winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a match that spills past three goals.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tighter Liverpool win, but still one where Atletico grab a goal of their own, keeping the scoreline close even as the Reds take the points.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Liverpool grinding out a clean, controlled win, shutting Atletico out and keeping the total goal count low in a disciplined, compact match.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 508 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%168 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
216%82 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
310%51 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
49%46 voters
AtleticoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
57%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
66%32 voters
AtleticoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
76%29 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
84%18 voters
AtleticoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
93%15 voters
AtleticoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
103%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (508 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3168 · 33%
2 / 3169 · 33%
1 / 3138 · 27%
0 / 333 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=508). Average 1.93 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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