VoxPop top scenarios
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Ghana1
Panama0
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
65%Crowd
48%Market
+17Divergence
+17 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap48%65% Yes+17
2Who wins?44%57% Ghana+13
3Who leads at half-time?34%46% Ghana+12
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?42%51% Yes+9
Crowd & market agreedGhana 1–0 Panama — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeGhana
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.28
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.52
Will both teams score0.85
Who leads at half-time0.82
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
116%192 voters
GhanaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
GhanaGot it wrong
1.9×
210%117 voters
PanamaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PanamaGot it wrong
4.2×
310%115 voters
GhanaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
GhanaGot it wrong
1.2×
47%85 voters
GhanaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
GhanaGot it wrong
1.6×
55%65 voters
GhanaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.1×
65%62 voters
GhanaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
GhanaGot it wrong
1.1×
74%48 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
5.1×
84%45 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.6×
94%43 voters
GhanaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
104%42 voters
PanamaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PanamaGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.68 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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