All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Houston TexansCrowd had 33%30
Dallas CowboysWon · Crowd had 67%34
The verdict

The crowd called it — Dallas Cowboys won 30–34.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Dallas Cowboys, and the crowd had it.

67%Crowd on Dallas Cowboys
41%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called
winsCrowd beat the market
Houston win by 3 or moreCrowd beat the market
there be more than 47.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Dallas Cowboys ✓67%
Houston Texans33%
OutcomeDallas Cowboys
Voters6
ReadCrowd
2Will Houston win by 3 or more?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Under 47.567%
Over 47.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Houston ✓50%
Dallas33%
Tie17%
OutcomeHouston
Voters6
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Dallas CowboysCrowd
Mkt 41%Crowd 67%+26pp
Result: Dallas Cowboys · 0.22
: Deep
Will Houston win by 3 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 67%+22pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Under 47.5Market
Mkt 46%Crowd 67%+21pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: HoustonCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 50%+5pp
Result: Houston · 0.39
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Houston win by 3 or more0.22
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.39
Average0.43
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

A Dallas road win in a free-scoring game, with Houston setting the early pace at the break but falling short of a three-plus margin by the final whistle.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Houston win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A tight, low-scoring Dallas victory from start to finish, the Cowboys controlling the half-time scoreboard and keeping Houston from any meaningful cushion.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Houston win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A disciplined Houston home win, the Texans ahead at the break and grinding out a margin of three or more in a game that stayed well within the total.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston
83% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Houston win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Called it!
HoustonCalled it!
4.5×
233%2 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
DallasGot it wrong
3.4×
317%1 voter
Houston TexansGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
HoustonCalled it!
4.6×
417%1 voter
Houston TexansGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
13.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.78How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.5×The most-backed combination drew 4.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 42 · 33%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 42 · 33%
1 / 41 · 17%
0 / 41 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 2.17 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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