The matchResolvedUpset
Japan1
Sweden1
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
65%Crowd
51%Market
+14Divergence

+14 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on Japan to win. Draw outcome cut against that lean.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap51%65% Japan+14
2Who leads at half-time?38%52% Japan+14
3Will both teams score?59%73% Yes+14
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?54%58% Yes+4
How it landed:UpsetJapan 1–1 Sweden — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters925World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Japan65%
Sweden23%
Draw12%
OutcomeDraw
Voters925
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeNo
Voters925
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Japan52%
Draw26%
Sweden23%
OutcomeDraw
Voters925
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
Yes73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters925
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: JapanUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 65%+14pp
Result: Draw · 1.25
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 58%+4pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: JapanMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 52%+14pp
Result: Draw · 0.87
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 73%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.25
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.67
Who leads at half-time0.87
Will both teams score0.15
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A high-scoring Japan performance: Japan in front at the break, goals flowing at both ends, and a Japan victory to close it out.

Who wins this match?Japan
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Japan
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

A tight but decisive Japan win: Japan ahead at half-time, both sides finding the net, yet the goals staying under three across the full match.

Who wins this match?Japan
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Japan
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

Sweden in control from the start, leading at the break in an open game where both teams scored and the goals kept coming past three.

Who wins this match?Sweden
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Sweden
Will both teams score?Yes
41% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 925 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
124%223 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
JapanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
29%87 voters
JapanGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
37%67 voters
SwedenGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
3.2×
46%56 voters
JapanGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
56%54 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
JapanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
65%50 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%40 voters
JapanGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
83%31 voters
JapanGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
93%29 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
103%29 voters
SwedenGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (925 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 424 · 3%
3 / 497 · 10%
2 / 4294 · 32%
1 / 4437 · 47%
0 / 473 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=925). Average 1.53 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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