All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
Tottenham Hotspur0
EvertonCrowd had 28%0
The verdict

Tottenham Hotspur 0–0 Everton

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton 650 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
54%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters650World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tottenham58%
Everton28%
Tie ✓14%
OutcomeTie
Voters650
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters650
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters650
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: TottenhamUpset
Mkt 47%Crowd 58%+11pp
Result: Tie · 1.15
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 51%+1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 67%+13pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.15
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.86
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

An open, end-to-end game at home: Tottenham winning in a match where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight but two-sided affair: Tottenham edging it in a low-scoring game where Everton still manage a reply.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A controlled, shut-out home win: Tottenham grinding out a clean-sheet victory in a match that stays under the goals line.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
52% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 650 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%172 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%89 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
312%77 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
411%72 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
58%50 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
67%45 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
76%37 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
86%37 voters
TottenhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
94%23 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
104%23 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (650 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 321 · 3%
2 / 3176 · 27%
1 / 3209 · 32%
0 / 3244 · 38%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=650). Average 0.96 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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