The matchResolvedUpset
Atlante
América
Atlante 1, America 1
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
75%Crowd
54%Market
+21Divergence

+21 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, and that read aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap54%75% Yes+21
2Who leads at half-time?16%34% Atlante wins 1st Half+18
3Who wins this match?57%68% America+11
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?48%56% No+8
How it landed:UpsetAtlante 1, America 1 — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters980World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
America68%
Atlante28%
Tie4%
OutcomeTie
Voters980
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half-time?
Atlante wins 1st Half34%
America wins 1st Half33%
Tie 1st Half33%
OutcomeAmerica wins 1st Half
Voters980
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No56%
Yes44%
OutcomeNo
Voters980
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters980
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: AmericaUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 68%+11pp
Result: Tie · 1.46
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Atlante wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 16%Crowd 34%+18pp
Result: America wins 1st Half · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 56%+8pp
Result: No · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 75%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.46
Who leads at half-time0.67
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.39
Will both teams score in regulation time0.13
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 12% of voters

A controlled America performance: ahead at the break, keeping the scoring tight but trading goals with Atlante for a low-scoring away win.

Who wins this match?America
Who leads at half-time?America wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

A cagey opening half gives way to a decisive America push, with both sides finding the net in a compact, low-scoring contest.

Who wins this match?America
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

America in the ascendancy from the off, both teams contributing to an open, goal-rich game that America ultimately controls.

Who wins this match?America
Who leads at half-time?America wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 980 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
112%117 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
America wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
211%111 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
310%95 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
America wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
49%92 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Atlante wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
59%89 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
67%68 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Atlante wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
75%48 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Atlante wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.7×
84%44 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Atlante wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
93%32 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Atlante wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%26 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (980 voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 43 · 0%
3 / 4153 · 16%
2 / 4397 · 41%
1 / 4380 · 39%
0 / 447 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=980). Average 1.68 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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