All resolved pollsResolved · 21 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
ArsenalWon · Crowd had 85%3
Coventry City0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Arsenal won 3–0.

Arsenal vs Coventry City: three calls on one match 667 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on Yes
37%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Arsenal vs Coventry…Crowd & market agreed
there be three goals or…Crowd & market agreed
both sides find the netMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters667World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Arsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result?
Arsenal ✓85%
Coventry10%
Tie5%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters667
ReadConsensus
2Will there be three goals or more?
Over 2.5 ✓58%
Under 2.542%
OutcomeOver 2.5
Voters667
ReadConsensus
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes59%
No ✓41%
OutcomeNo
Voters667
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Arsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result: ArsenalConsensus
Mkt 83%Crowd 85%+2pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Over 2.5Consensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 58%-3pp
Result: Over 2.5 · 0.35
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 59%+22pp
Result: No · 0.70
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Arsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result0.04
Will there be three goals or more0.35
Do both sides find the net0.70
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

A free-flowing Arsenal win with goals at both ends, the crowd's most-backed vision of a high-scoring, shared-spoils-in-goals contest.

Arsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result?Arsenal
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters · came true

Arsenal dominant and prolific, but keeping the net behind them clean while still delivering a goal-laden, one-sided spectacle.

Arsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result?Arsenal
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
Scenario 3 · 21% of voters

A tighter Arsenal win where both sides contribute to the scoresheet but the match stays contained within a modest goal count.

Arsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result?Arsenal
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 667 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosArsenal vs Coventry City: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
128%190 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
222%149 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
321%141 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
413%87 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
53%21 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
63%21 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
72%15 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
82%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
92%11 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
101%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (667 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.04How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3149 · 22%
2 / 3293 · 44%
1 / 3191 · 29%
0 / 334 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=667). Average 1.84 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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