The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
France2
Morocco0
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
77%Crowd
49%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, a conviction the clean-sheet result cut against.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap49%77% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?46%56% France wins 1st Half+10
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?48%53% Yes+5
4Who wins this match?77%79% France advances+2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedFrance 2–0 Morocco — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters2.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances79%
Morocco advances21%
OutcomeFrance advances
Voters2.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeNo
Voters2.2k
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes53%
No47%
OutcomeNo
Voters2.2k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half56%
Tie 1st Half26%
Morocco wins 1st Half17%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters2.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesConsensus
Mkt 77%Crowd 79%+2pp
Result: France advances · 0.09
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 77%+28pp
Result: No · 1.19
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 53%+5pp
Result: No · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 46%Crowd 56%+10pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.89
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.09
Will both teams score in regulation time1.19
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.56
Who leads at half-time0.89
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

France in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open game, goals flowing past three, Les Bleus already ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

France edging ahead early and holding firm, Morocco grabbing one back but the game staying tight on goals, a narrow French lead at half-time.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A cagey opening half ending level, then the game opening up after the break with both teams scoring and the goal tally climbing past three.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
126%568 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.4×
217%365 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
37%163 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
47%149 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
55%114 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.1×
64%95 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.8×
74%90 voters
Morocco advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.2×
84%84 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.7×
93%74 voters
Morocco advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
103%60 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2.2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 484 · 4%
3 / 4356 · 16%
2 / 4802 · 37%
1 / 4817 · 37%
0 / 4120 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2.2k). Average 1.76 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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