All resolved pollsResolved · 24 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
Green Bay PackersCrowd had 44%14
Atlanta FalconsWon · Crowd had 56%35
The verdict

The crowd called it — Atlanta Falcons won 14–35.

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons 625 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 29 points above the market's price on Atlanta Falcons, and the crowd had it.

56%Crowd on Atlanta Falcons
27%Market price
+29Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called
winsCrowd beat the market
Green Bay win by 7 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 44.5…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters625World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Atlanta Falcons ✓56%
Green Bay Packers44%
OutcomeAtlanta Falcons
Voters625
ReadCrowd
2Will Green Bay win by 7 or more?
No ✓57%
Yes43%
OutcomeNo
Voters625
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.5 ✓59%
Under 44.541%
OutcomeOver 44.5
Voters625
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Atlanta FalconsCrowd
Mkt 27%Crowd 56%+29pp
Result: Atlanta Falcons · 0.39
: Deep
Will Green Bay win by 7 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 57%+10pp
Result: No · 0.37
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 59%+10pp
Result: Over 44.5 · 0.34
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.39
Will Green Bay win by 7 or more0.37
Will there be more than 44.5 points0.34
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters · came true

Atlanta takes the game without Green Bay ever threatening a big lead, both offences firing in a loose, high-scoring affair.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will Green Bay win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Green Bay pulls clear by a comfortable margin while both teams pile up points in an open, free-flowing contest.

Who wins?Green Bay Packers
Will Green Bay win by 7 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Atlanta wins but neither side finds much rhythm, a tight defensive game that keeps the scoreboard modest throughout.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will Green Bay win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 625 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Green Bay win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?
126%165 voters
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 44.5Called it!
1.4×
216%99 voters
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
1.4×
315%93 voters
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
1.1×
413%82 voters
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
1.7×
59%54 voters
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
0.6×
68%52 voters
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 44.5Called it!
0.6×
77%44 voters
Green Bay PackersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
0.7×
86%36 voters
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (625 voters · top 8 of 8 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3165 · 26%
2 / 3199 · 32%
1 / 3179 · 29%
0 / 382 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=625). Average 1.72 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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