All resolved pollsResolved · 23 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
TorinoWon · Crowd had 60%3
MonzaCrowd had 24%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Torino won 3–2.

Torino vs Monza 560 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Torino, and the crowd had it.

60%Crowd on Torino
45%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters560World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Torino ✓60%
Monza24%
Tie17%
OutcomeTorino
Voters560
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals54%
Over 2.5 goals ✓46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters560
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters560
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: TorinoConsensus
Mkt 45%Crowd 60%+15pp
Result: Torino · 0.25
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 54%+1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.58
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 64%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.25
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.58
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters · came true

A lively Torino win with both sides on the scoresheet and the goals flowing freely, the crowd's most-backed single vision of the match.

Match resultTorino
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Torino grind out a tight, controlled win, keeping Monza off the board and the total goals count low, a disciplined shutdown scenario.

Match resultTorino
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Torino win a close, scrappy contest where both teams find the net but the match stays narrow and low-scoring overall.

Match resultTorino
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 560 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%130 voters
TorinoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
218%103 voters
TorinoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
313%71 voters
TorinoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
410%56 voters
MonzaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
57%41 voters
MonzaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
66%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
76%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
85%30 voters
TorinoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
95%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
104%25 voters
MonzaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (560 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3130 · 23%
2 / 3186 · 33%
1 / 3187 · 33%
0 / 357 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=560). Average 1.69 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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