All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
New Orleans SaintsCrowd had 33%27
Las Vegas RaidersWon · Crowd had 67%35
The verdict

The crowd backed No. Las Vegas Raiders won 27–35.

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 46 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on No
54%Market price
+46Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
New Orleans win by 4 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 43.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Las Vegas Raiders ✓67%
New Orleans Saints33%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders
Voters3
ReadCrowd
2Will New Orleans win by 4 or more?
No ✓100%
Yes0%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 43.5 points?
Under 43.567%
Over 43.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 43.5
Voters3
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Las Vegas wins 1st Half ✓67%
New Orleans wins 1st Half33%
Tie 1st Half0%
OutcomeLas Vegas wins 1st Half
Voters3
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Las Vegas RaidersCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 67%+28pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders · 0.22
: Deep
Will New Orleans win by 4 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 100%+46pp
Result: No · 0.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 43.5 points: Under 43.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Over 43.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Las Vegas wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 67%+28pp
Result: Las Vegas wins 1st Half · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will New Orleans win by 4 or more0.00
Will there be more than 43.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.22
Average0.33
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

Raiders in control from the opening drive, building a first-half lead and keeping New Orleans from covering, while both offences combine for a high-scoring shootout.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will New Orleans win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Raiders seize the first half and grind out a disciplined, lower-scoring win, keeping New Orleans well short of a four-point margin in a contained, structured contest.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will New Orleans win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Under 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

Saints take the first-half lead and hold on for a narrow final win, with both defences keeping the scoring low and New Orleans falling short of a four-point cover.

Who wins?New Orleans Saints
Will New Orleans win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Under 43.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans wins 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New Orleans win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 43.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 43.5Called it!
Las Vegas wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.3×
233%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 43.5Got it wrong
Las Vegas wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.1×
333%1 voter
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 43.5Got it wrong
New Orleans wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.48How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 33%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2.67 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.