The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Scotland0
Brazil3
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
82%Crowd
50%Market
+32Divergence

+32 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd stacked heavily above market on Brazil leading at half-time, a read that aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap50%82% Brazil+32
2Will both teams score?45%70% Yes+25
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?53%74% Yes+21
4Who wins this match?69%88% Brazil+19
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedScotland 0–3 Brazil — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario45%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Brazil88%
Scotland7%
Draw5%
OutcomeBrazil
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes70%
No30%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Brazil82%
Draw10%
Scotland8%
OutcomeBrazil
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: BrazilConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 88%+19pp
Result: Brazil · 0.02
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 70%+25pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 74%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BrazilConsensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 82%+32pp
Result: Brazil · 0.05
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will both teams score0.98
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.14
Who leads at half-time0.05
Average0.30
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 45% of voters

A high-scoring Brazil performance: goals at both ends, a busy and open match, Brazil firmly in front by the break and controlling the contest throughout.

Who wins this match?Brazil
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Brazil
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters · came true

Brazil clinical and dominant, keeping Scotland scoreless while still producing a goal-heavy match, already ahead at half-time with the tie effectively settled.

Who wins this match?Brazil
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Brazil
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tight, controlled Brazil win: Scotland shut out, the match low on goals but Brazil quietly ahead at the break and never seriously threatened.

Who wins this match?Brazil
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Brazil
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
145%496 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
BrazilCalled it!
1.2×
215%165 voters
BrazilCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
BrazilCalled it!
0.9×
310%106 voters
BrazilCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
BrazilCalled it!
1.7×
49%95 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
BrazilCalled it!
0.7×
53%37 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
62%27 voters
ScotlandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ScotlandGot it wrong
8.4×
72%24 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ScotlandGot it wrong
0.6×
82%20 voters
BrazilCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.1×
91%13 voters
BrazilCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.7×
101%13 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
BrazilCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4165 · 15%
3 / 4622 · 56%
2 / 4211 · 19%
1 / 484 · 8%
0 / 427 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 2.73 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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