All resolved pollsResolved · 25 SEPT 2026Upset
AtlanteWon · Crowd had 34%4
MonterreyCrowd's pick · 53%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Atlante won 4–2.

Atlante vs Monterrey: Liga MX 608 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
60%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters608World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Monterrey53%
Atlante ✓34%
Tie13%
OutcomeAtlante
Voters608
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters608
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters608
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MonterreyUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 53%+5pp
Result: Atlante · 0.73
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 56%-3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 69%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.73
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.39
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Monterrey winning a free-scoring, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in an open game.

Match resultMonterrey
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters · came true

A minority but coherent vision: Atlante pulling off the upset in a high-scoring affair where both teams contributed goals.

Match resultAtlante
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight, controlled Monterrey win, with the game staying low-scoring and Atlante shut out of the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultMonterrey
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 608 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%154 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
215%91 voters
AtlanteCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
311%68 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
410%63 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
510%58 voters
AtlanteCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
67%41 voters
AtlanteCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
76%37 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
84%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
94%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
103%19 voters
AtlanteCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (608 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 391 · 15%
2 / 3258 · 42%
1 / 3176 · 29%
0 / 383 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=608). Average 1.59 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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