All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
FlamengoWon · Crowd had 59%1
FluminenseCrowd had 27%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Flamengo won 1–0.

Flamengo vs Fluminense 553 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
30%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Flamengo ✓59%
Fluminense27%
Tie14%
OutcomeFlamengo
Voters553
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters553
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes70%
No ✓30%
OutcomeNo
Voters553
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FlamengoConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 59%-21pp
Result: Flamengo · 0.26
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 30%Crowd 55%+25pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 70%+24pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.26
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.98
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Flamengo winning a free-flowing, open derby with both sides finding the net in a high-scoring contest.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tighter Flamengo win, but still with Fluminense grabbing a goal of their own in a cagey, low-volume affair.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

An upset vision: Fluminense turning the derby, goals flowing freely, and both clubs leaving their mark on the scoresheet.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%161 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%76 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
312%64 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
410%57 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
56%35 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
66%34 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
76%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
86%32 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
93%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
103%18 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 357 · 10%
2 / 3160 · 29%
1 / 3256 · 46%
0 / 380 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=553). Average 1.35 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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