All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCrowd's pick · 67%14
Green Bay PackersWon · Crowd had 33%17
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 40.5. Green Bay Packers won 14–17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Over 40.5, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Over 40.5
43%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Green Bay win by 4 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 40.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers67%
Green Bay Packers ✓33%
OutcomeGreen Bay Packers
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 40.5 points?
Over 40.567%
Under 40.5 ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 40.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Tampa Bay67%
Green Bay ✓33%
Tie0%
OutcomeGreen Bay
Voters6
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Tampa Bay BuccaneersMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Green Bay Packers · 0.90
: Deep
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 40.5 points: Over 40.5Market
Mkt 43%Crowd 67%+24pp
Result: Under 40.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Tampa BayUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: Green Bay · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more0.22
Will there be more than 40.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.90
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Tampa controls the game from the front, keeps the margin tight, and both offences combine for a high-scoring afternoon.

Who wins?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A minority saw Green Bay dominant throughout, pulling clear by four or more in a free-flowing, points-heavy contest with the Packers leading wire to wire.

Who wins?Green Bay Packers
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Green Bay
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A contrarian cluster pictured Green Bay winning comfortably despite a slow, low-scoring game, with Tampa briefly ahead at the break before Green Bay pulled away.

Who wins?Green Bay Packers
Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Green Bay win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 40.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Tampa BayGot it wrong
1.7×
217%1 voter
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Green BayCalled it!
6.9×
317%1 voter
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 40.5Called it!
Tampa BayGot it wrong
6.9×
417%1 voter
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Green BayCalled it!
1.7×
517%1 voter
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 40.5Called it!
Tampa BayGot it wrong
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.56How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 44 · 67%
1 / 42 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.67 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.