All resolved pollsResolved · 1 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
DenmarkCrowd had 15%2
PortugalWon · Crowd had 77%4
The verdict

The crowd called it — Portugal won 2–4.

Denmark vs Portugal 597 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Portugal, and the crowd had it.

77%Crowd on Portugal
49%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters597World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Portugal ✓77%
Denmark15%
Tie8%
OutcomePortugal
Voters597
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters597
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓68%
No32%
OutcomeYes
Voters597
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PortugalConsensus
Mkt 49%Crowd 77%+28pp
Result: Portugal · 0.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 56%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 68%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.20
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.39
Will both teams score0.20
Average0.22
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters · came true

A Portugal win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely. The crowd's dominant vision, far more clustered than chance alone would produce.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Portugal grind out a tight, controlled victory, keeping Denmark off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, disciplined contest.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Portugal win a close affair where both teams score but the game stays compact, with few goals shared between the sides.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 597 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
139%232 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
216%98 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
314%85 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%45 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
56%33 voters
DenmarkGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
64%25 voters
DenmarkGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
74%22 voters
DenmarkGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
84%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
92%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (597 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3232 · 39%
2 / 3175 · 29%
1 / 3158 · 26%
0 / 332 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=597). Average 2.02 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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