All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Upset
Philadelphia EaglesCrowd's pick · 100%14
Carolina PanthersWon · Crowd had 0%25
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Carolina Panthers won 14–25.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 54 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Yes
46%Market price
+54Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
Philadelphia win by 2…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 41.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario67%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Philadelphia Eagles100%
Carolina Panthers ✓0%
OutcomeCarolina Panthers
Voters3
ReadUpset
2Will Philadelphia win by 2 or more?
Yes100%
No ✓0%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Over 41.567%
Under 41.5 ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 41.5
Voters3
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Philadelphia67%
Tie33%
Carolina ✓0%
OutcomeCarolina
Voters3
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Philadelphia EaglesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 100%+49pp
Result: Carolina Panthers · 2.00
: Deep
Will Philadelphia win by 2 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 100%+54pp
Result: No · 2.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Over 41.5Market
Mkt 43%Crowd 67%+24pp
Result: Under 41.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: PhiladelphiaMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 67%+19pp
Result: Carolina · 1.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins2.00
Will Philadelphia win by 2 or more2.00
Will there be more than 41.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time1.56
Average1.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 67% of voters

Eagles dominant from the first whistle, building a halftime lead and powering a high-scoring, comfortable margin victory over Carolina.

Who wins?Philadelphia Eagles
Will Philadelphia win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Philadelphia
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Eagles grind out a winning margin in a tight, low-scoring affair, with neither side separating at the break before Philadelphia pulls clear.

Who wins?Philadelphia Eagles
Will Philadelphia win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 2 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Philadelphia win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
167%2 voters
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
PhiladelphiaGot it wrong
1.5×
233%1 voter
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
3.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 2 of 2 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.44How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 42 · 67%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 0.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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