All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Green Bay PackersWon · Crowd had 50%31
Chicago BearsCrowd had 50%7
The verdict

The crowd backed No. Green Bay Packers won 31–7.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on No
49%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Chicago win by 2 or moreCrowd beat the market
there be more than 45.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Green Bay Packers ✓50%
Chicago Bears50%
OutcomeGreen Bay Packers
Voters4
ReadCrowd
2Will Chicago win by 2 or more?
No ✓75%
Yes25%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Under 45.5 ✓75%
Over 45.525%
OutcomeUnder 45.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Chicago50%
Green Bay ✓50%
Tie0%
OutcomeGreen Bay
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Green Bay PackersCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 50%+4pp
Result: Green Bay Packers · 0.50
: Deep
Will Chicago win by 2 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
Result: No · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Under 45.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
Result: Under 45.5 · 0.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ChicagoUpset
Mkt 49%Crowd 50%+1pp
Result: Green Bay · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Chicago win by 2 or more0.13
Will there be more than 45.5 points0.13
Who leads at half-time0.50
Average0.31
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters · came true

A controlled Green Bay victory, low-scoring throughout, with the Packers setting the tone from the first half and keeping Chicago's margin hopes firmly off the table.

Who wins?Green Bay Packers
Will Chicago win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Green Bay
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A high-energy Chicago win that stays close enough to deny a two-score cushion, with the Bears leading at the break in a game that produces plenty of points.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Chicago in command from the first half, grinding out a decisive margin in a tight, low-scoring contest that never opens up into a shootout.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Chicago win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
Green Bay PackersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 45.5Called it!
Green BayCalled it!
3.6×
225%1 voter
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 45.5Got it wrong
ChicagoGot it wrong
5.3×
325%1 voter
Chicago BearsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 45.5Called it!
ChicagoGot it wrong
5.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.77How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.6×The most-backed combination drew 3.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 42 · 50%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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