All resolved pollsResolved · 18 SEPT 2026Upset
EspanyolCrowd's pick · 68%1
ElcheWon · Crowd had 16%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Espanyol. Elche won 1–3.

Espanyol vs Elche 606 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Espanyol, and it went the other way.

68%Crowd on Espanyol
52%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters606World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Espanyol68%
Elche ✓16%
Tie16%
OutcomeElche
Voters606
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals ✓48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters606
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters606
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EspanyolUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 68%+16pp
Result: Elche · 1.19
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 52%+2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 61%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.19
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.54
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Espanyol winning an open, end-to-end contest with goals at both ends and the scoreboard ticking past two and a half.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A tight, controlled Espanyol victory, kept low-scoring and one-sided, with Elche shut out and the game decided by a narrow margin.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Espanyol edging it in a compact, scrappy affair, both sides finding the net but the goals staying sparse and the home side coming out on top.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 606 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%163 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
218%110 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
315%88 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
49%52 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
57%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
65%28 voters
ElcheCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
74%27 voters
ElcheCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
84%26 voters
ElcheCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
104%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (606 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 327 · 4%
2 / 3225 · 37%
1 / 3222 · 37%
0 / 3132 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=606). Average 1.24 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.