All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Upset
Juárez2
Tigres UANL0
The verdict

The crowd backed Tigres. Juárez won 2–0.

FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL 612 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points below the market's price on Tigres, and it went the other way.

43%Crowd on Tigres
52%Market price
-9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters612World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tigres43%
Juarez ✓34%
Tie23%
OutcomeJuarez
Voters612
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓55%
Over 2.5 goals45%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters612
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters612
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: TigresUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 43%-9pp
Result: Juarez · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 55%+9pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 63%+7pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.67
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.40
Will both teams score0.79
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Tigres controlling the match in an open, back-and-forth game where both sides find the net in a higher-scoring affair.

Match resultTigres
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

A contrarian but coherent picture: Juarez pulling off the upset in a lively, end-to-end contest with goals shared across both teams.

Match resultJuarez
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters · came true

A tight, defensive Juarez win with few goals and only one side scoring, a compact and controlled upset scenario.

Match resultJuarez
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 612 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%121 voters
TigresGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
211%70 voters
JuarezCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
310%63 voters
JuarezCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
410%61 voters
TigresGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
59%58 voters
TigresGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
69%57 voters
JuarezCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
78%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
87%45 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
104%24 voters
TigresGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (612 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 363 · 10%
2 / 3183 · 30%
1 / 3215 · 35%
0 / 3151 · 25%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=612). Average 1.26 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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