VoxPop top scenarios
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Haiti0
Scotland1
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
62%Crowd
45%Market
+17Divergence
+17 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Scotland on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap45%62% Scotland+17
2Who wins?63%72% Scotland+9
3Will both teams score?47%55% Yes+8
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?50%50% No0
Crowd & market agreedHaiti 0–1 Scotland — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeScotland
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeScotland
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.12
Will both teams score0.61
Who leads at half-time0.22
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.50
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
118%216 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ScotlandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
216%187 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ScotlandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
312%148 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ScotlandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
411%126 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ScotlandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
55%58 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
NoCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
64%46 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
4.0×
74%44 voters
HaitiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
HaitiGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
7.4×
83%38 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
4.1×
93%35 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
103%33 voters
ScotlandCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.29 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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